SOME INTERESTING PREDICTIONS

FOR 2009 

eMarketer, that trusty analyst of economic and digital trends, predicts that spending on search marketing will grow by almost 15% this year, bringing the total to $12.3 billion. Despite the fact that growth in 2009 will be slower than in previous years, the gains still will be higher than in any other major form of advertising, on or offline.   

Similarly, the research firm reports that total US Internet ad spending will increase by 8.9% to $25.7 billion. This may sound high, but it is the lowest per year gain for online advertising ever. But that is still substantially higher than growth figures posted by other media. Online retail sales, with the exception of travel, will post a modest growth. 

The analysts at eMarketer anticipate substantial enhancement of self-serve advertising systems on My Space and Facebook, allowing consumers and businesses to buy and sell real world goods and services. They also predict that Twitter will be acquired this year, although it turned down an offer last year from Facebook. The new buyer will undoubtedly use it to offer targeted marketing and analytics to advertisers. 

Not surprisingly, eMarketer anticipates the highest declines in advertising will be felt by newspapers. TV ad spending in the US will decrease by 4.2% to $66.9 billion. Broadcasters will be forced to refocus their business model to create more programming online along with a variety of other changes.  

It is shaping up as a most interesting, albeit rather frightening, year. 
 

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ARE THE MOGULS OF WEB COMMERCE

EYEING PRINT ADVERTISING AS WELL? 

A New York Times article last week reported growing concern among advertising agencies that digital majors  Google and Microsoft are expanding their sights to include offline advertising. At an annual conference in Cannes, agency executives expressed the concern that the two “want to extend their reach into traditional advertising – transforming, as they see it, a business built on creativity to one controlled by the sterile algorithms of computer programmers,” according to the newspaper article. 

This concern is in part the result of Google’s purchase of DoubleClick and Microsoft’s acquisition of Navic Networks and aQuantive. 

While reps from  the two digital behemoths tried to allay fears by insisting they want to work closely with ad agencies, not compete against them, many believe they are being caught in their  escalating contest for digital domination. 

OUTLOOK FOR 2008 NOT VERY SANGUINE

FOR OFFLINE MEDIA BASED ON EARLY RESULTS 

Freelancers, pay attention. As ad revenues go, so goes the market for freelance.

Publishers Information Bureau reports that magazines have experienced a rather dismal first quarter, with the sole exception of food publications. 

Apparently benefiting from the “fattening of America” trend, Every Day with Rachel Ray posted an impressive gain for 38% in ad pages. Continuing her rebound after that farcical episode of trials and prison, Martha Stewart is bouncing back. The number of ad pages in her Everyday Food jumped by 11%.  

Industry-wide, ad page counts posted a drop of 6.4%. The most depressed category was news magazines. US News & World Report topped the slippage with a drop of 38% in ad pages. Newsweek fared the best, losing only 14%, while Time held the middle ground with an 18% loss, according to Wooden Horse, the always reliable weekly periodicals report. 

But the declines are not limited to magazines alone. BIA Financial Network predicts a loss of 3.1% of revenue for the radio industry in 2008, hopefully bouncing back to positive numbers the following year. 

The March slippage of 10% was the largest since November, 2001, according to Radio Online.

The heaviest losses were from national advertisers.