ENOUGH OF THE NAYSAYERS AND DOOM AND GLOOMERS;

THE PRINT WORLD’S HEALTH IS NOWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS THEY SAY  

For two years we’ve heard nothing but negatives when the alleged gurus of the industry voiced their views.  It’s time at last for someone to unveil a realistic look at the situation, particularly now that we are beginning to see trickles of the positive in many corners of the industry. 

Every few weeks an almost unnoticed positive occurs. Since the first of this month, we’ve seen the Journal Register Company emerge from bankruptcy and the anticipated demise of the Seattle Times, which so many predicted would follow the lead of its defunct competitor the Post-Intelligencer. Not only hasn’t it happened; the paper is now posting a profit. 

Just this past week, Colby Atwood, president of the ad research firm Borrell Associates was quoted in Ad Age saying, “We are forecasting  that by 2014, newspaper income will be up a total of 8.7% above the 2009 figures.” Here’s hoping he’s right. 

I admit these individual small successes hardly indicate a major trend. But it is reassuring that finally we are hearing some positive news. 

Despite the closing of magazines, a number of new ones have reached the market over the past year and a half. Nielsen Book Scan reports that over the past five years, book sales of general fiction have grown by 23.3% and nonfiction by 11.1%. 

Almost more impressive, the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) reported in January that for the first time in the history of its survey the overall rate at which adults read literature rose by 7%. Last year alone, the number of adult literary readers jumped by an amazing 16.6 million. Most exciting is the finding that the biggest increase has been among 18-24-year-olds. Great news for the future of our industry. 

The increase in e-book sales from 2002 to the present, as aggregated from studies by the American Association of Publishers and the International Digital Publishing Forum, is quite impressive. In the second quarter of 2002, the industry posted $2.2 million in sales. That increased steadily reaching $16.8 million in the second quarter of this year. 

Print newspapers, especially dailies in large cities, have been the subject of the most dire predictions, and in some cases, like the Rocky Mountain News, have already passed on. But it might be worthwhile to look at some of the vitals of the industry that is supposed to be struggling with its last breath. 

The Newspaper Association of America reports that more than 104 million adults read a print newspaper every day. That grows to more than 115 million on Sundays. Many gurus argue that the readership is comprised principally of older Americans, used to traditional print papers. The NAA found that 61% of 18-35-year-olds read a newspaper.  

Yes, there has been slippage in print newspaper readership since the turn of the century. But compare it to television. In 2007, the newspaper decline was 1.8%. Prime-time TV audiences plunged  by 10%. On the positive side, the readership of newspaper web sites has grown to 73 million visitors a month, an increase of 75% since 2004. 

One of the most interesting aspects of this overall trend is the way smaller print newspapers have fared. A study of revenue at 125 members of the Inland Press Association revealed overall ad revenue at newspapers with circulations of 15,000 or less, rose by 2.5% during the five years that ended in 2008. Classified dollars, so vital to newspapers, jumped by 23% over the period. 

Inland has also reported that newspapers with circulation of 50,000 and under were spending more on their newsroom than they were five years ago.  Of course, the limited amount of competing media in small and medium-sized cities served by these smaller papers is far less than what the majors face and has contributed to their success. But there is a great deal to be learned from the local orientation of these smaller papers. 

There is no question that the minimal cost to the consumer and the speed of the Internet in reporting instant news, enhanced by the “opinion pages” of the blogosphere has caused a great deal of suffering among dailies as they watch their readership migrate to the Web. But the most brutal wounds have been the result of the faltering economy and the pullback by advertisers that has resulted. 

It is not unreasonable to believe as Borrell Associates and some Wall Street analysts do that profits will begin to rise modestly this year and continue to grow.  

Don’t count print out yet! 

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